Holly cow, how many Middle East experts we seem to have in our country…
It’s hard not to reach this conclusion after watching for days, some people standing in front of maps, holding sticks, explaining their so-called strategic multi-faceted moves on TV screens.
Should we be happy?
I recalled a conversation I had with an elderly friend who spent much of his life at the center of politics, taking on important roles within the CHP, starting from the single-party period.
He had been invited to an international meeting… The “Cold War” years… The hosts, upon meeting him, said: “We looked at the map and saw that your country has the longest border with the Soviet Union. Given such a position, you must be the ones who know Russia best. Everyone is eager to hear what you have to say.”
My friend completed his story by saying, “At that time, there were only two works written about the neighboring country by Turkish scholars who knew Russian…”
Do those speaking on TV, stick in hand, about Israel, Palestine, Lebanon, Yemen, and Iran, or about Hamas and Hezbollah, know Arabic, Hebrew, or Persian?
At least one of these languages?
Or are they forming their opinions based on Western sources in languages like English, French, or German?
Does it matter?
Of course, it does.
Looking at what Israel has done in Lebanon over the past week, I see a significant difference between the two sides: Netanyahu, during the Gaza war, which is nearing one year —while extending the conflict to Lebanon and Yemen— acts knowing exactly what the other side might do with every step he takes.
Thanks to an intelligence network that includes Arabic speakers…
The experts within Israel’s intelligence network can also foresee how Netanyahu’s actions will be received in Washington, London, Paris, and Berlin; they know those countries’ languages…
We realized that Israel knew Hezbollah’s command staff used pagers or radios instead of mobile phones to communicate only after the devices exploded.
They must have felt the need to turn those devices into bombs years ago, anticipating that one day they would be used.
The location of Hasan Nasrallah’s hiding spot, from where he directs his orders from his bunker, is also known with pinpoint accuracy by the Israelis…
Even more importantly: Despite encountering fierce resistance in Gaza, they have managed to transform into a military power capable of disturbing Lebanon and Yemen simultaneously.
What about the other side?
It seems Hezbollah’s command structure believed that Netanyahu, struggling to withstand the resistance he faced in Gaza, would not target them with a move.
Meanwhile, it’s clear Netanyahu anticipated how expanding the theater of war would be received by Western countries.
Why might Netanyahu have felt the need to broaden the battlefield?
The U.S. and France, facing serious internal opposition, protests, and mass movements, were using all their strength to pressure Netanyahu into halting the war in Gaza by negotiating with Hamas in exchange for hostages.
Behind-the-scenes efforts were giving the impression that this would succeed.
Netanyahu was also under pressure from within Israel along the same lines. The families of the hostages know that more than half of their loved ones, held by Hamas since October 7, have lost their lives during the war, and they want the war to end as soon as possible so the rest can be saved alive.
In the daily protests in front of the Prime Minister’s office and Netanyahu’s house, hostage families are at the forefront.
Jews living outside Israel are also facing unprecedented hostility in their countries and are pressuring Netanyahu through their influential organizations.
One reason for the attacks on Lebanon and then Yemen is to invalidate the ceasefire pressures coming from the West—especially from the U.S. and France…
Netanyahu is playing this bloody game with full awareness of the surrounding conditions.
By shattering the framework of international law and the laws of war that have developed over centuries…
And by instilling fear in the world’s people with a message of “You know I can burn it all down”…
Netanyahu is someone with blood on his hands and eyes…
As long as he stays in power, the world may turn into a blazing inferno…
I’m not quite sure what the final opinion was of those on TV, standing in front of maps, predicting whether Netanyahu’s next target will be Iran or Turkey.
ΩΩΩΩ
[The translation of the article is by ChatGPT with some minor modifications.]