There is no doubt that the CHP (Republican People’s Party) has a chance to emerge as the leading party in the next general election and even seize power. Given that the March 31st election brought local control to the CHP in about two-thirds of the country, why shouldn’t the same happen in the general elections?
As far as I can see, CHP members are in this mindset…
The excitement reflected in the congress, where the CHP cadres spent the weekend making what could be considered major changes to their bylaws, is related to this expectation.
But how will this happen?
Politics, after all, is a game of arithmetic. To come to power, a party must first emerge as the top party from the ballot box. That’s not enough; the vote must also result in holding more than half of the seats in Parliament.
For the next president to be from the CHP, the candidate must secure 50+1% of the vote.
In other words, under current circumstances, it’s not easy for the CHP to come to power and elect one of its members as president.
Polls show that the CHP’s top spot has continued since March 31st, but the potential vote share is still not enough to govern alone.
The election that could have brought a CHP-affiliated president already took place last year, and Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu received 48% of the vote. However, to achieve that, Kılıçdaroğlu had to keep the CHP badge in his pocket.
It was the ‘Table of Six’ that garnered those extra votes for him.
Kılıçdaroğlu feels he was unjustly removed from leadership; disillusioned with the party, he stayed away from the weekend congress.
If this disillusionment continues, it could negatively affect the CHP’s chances of success.
Moreover, the new CHP leadership is unaware that the image of the ‘Table of Six’ in the last general election worked in their favor. They even couldn’t come to terms with the fact that MPs from conservative-leaning parties were elected from their lists. Instead of maintaining relationships, the CHP is practically pushing them towards the AK Party…
Yet, the ‘Table of Six’ image helped alleviate the doubts of voters who were hesitant about leaving the AK Party. The habit that began in the May 2023 elections continued and even increased on March 31st.
There are still potential partners for CHP to form alliances with, but the question remains whether these alliances will bring in votes or push them away; this needs careful consideration.
Otherwise, seeing that it couldn’t stay in power alone, the AK Party agreed to an alliance with the MHP. Had the ‘People’s Alliance’ not been formed, the AK Party would have long been in opposition, and President Erdoğan would have left the Presidential Palace.
At the bylaws congress, Özgür Özel declared that they would go to the election by making an ‘alliance with the people’—meaning, alone.
How will the CHP manage to increase its vote share to the point of securing a majority in Parliament in the general election?
I may be repeating myself, but it’s necessary: even if the CHP participating solo in election increases its votes, achieving the kind of success needed to govern solo is difficult.
Not just difficult, impossible.
A CHP that stands alone will also struggle to elect one of its own as president.
In fact, not just struggle—it will be handing the presidency to the rival candidate.
The new CHP leader, perhaps riding a wave of self-confidence, keeps stating that they expect Tayyip Erdoğan to be their opponent in the next election; in such a case, it’s possible that fortune will smile on Erdoğan for a fourth time.
What could the new CHP leadership be relying on?
Could it be the word ‘change’ or the claim “We have changed”?
That claim worked partially in the last March 31st election. However, the events that unfolded in the days after the election did not support the change claim. The declaration made at the congress, “The CHP today is the same as it was a hundred years ago,” is verbal proof that no change has occurred.
In numerous social and political events faced—most recently, the issue of the alternative oath taken by newly graduated officers—the CHP gave the same familiar reactions.
If they believe the growing negativity toward the AK Party and its leader, President Erdoğan, will automatically lead voters to the CHP, this is a misguided belief.
While research shows a slight increase in CHP votes and a slight decrease in AK Party votes, the largest group remains the ‘undecided,’ which should concern the CHP cadres.
Yes, there is a search among the public, but the destination of that search is still far from being the CHP.
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[The translation of the article is by ChatGPT with some minor modifications.]
