While watching the developments regarding CHP, which came in first place by a narrow margin in the last election, I find the enthusiasm expressed by CHP members quite problematic.
They are acting too early to be so confident…
What led me to think this was a photo that brought joy to the CHP-affiliated media yesterday.
In the photo, CHP’s chairman Özgür Özel is seen walking arm in arm with former chairmen Altan Öymen and Hikmet Çetin, and Istanbul’s CHP mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu. Cumhuriyet newspaper found the headline “The ruling party will emerge from the congress hall – The goal is a president from CHP” appropriate for the photo…
CHP will convene a constitutional congress; its media has already granted CHP power and the presidency just based on this photo of an important meeting of CHP figures…
This is premature excitement…
In the end, they might disappoint both their own base and the masses in the country who are just beginning to warm up to CHP and desire change…
[A narrow victory in the local election on March 31 could have been achieved ten months earlier as well. However, in the general election, AK Party once again emerged victorious, with Tayyip Erdoğan re-elected as president. The success of President Erdoğan, who is also the AK Party chairman, was greatly contributed by CHP’s failure to understand Turkey and its people well.]
Public opinion polls indicate that CHP’s votes have increased since the local election. However, how the floating voter base, which is referred to as “swing voters” in political literature, will behave on election day cannot be predicted in advance.
It seems that the CHP leadership and its media are forgetting this as well as other thorny issues. Negative news about the AK Party, like the SETA report, is enough for them.
Whether the election is held on time or early, a tough process awaits them, and CHP does not seem to be emerging unscathed from it.
Let me elaborate:
Altan Öymen, one of those in the photo, served as CHP chairman during a period known in our political history as the “February 28 process” (Tenure: May 23, 1999 – October 1, 2000).
A segment that remembers the political line followed during that period, which was not very bright for CHP’s February 28 process performance, will think twice when the time comes for them to make a choice, as it will be difficult for CHP to come to power without their votes or to elect a CHP member as president.
Those who think twice are among today’s “undecideds” in public opinion polls.
Even those who are still preparing to vote for CHP are now reconsidering, looking at the reflexes acquired from February 28 process reflected in the media, which is already portraying CHP as prematurely confident.
The issue isn’t just CHP’s record on February 28 process… CHP has many other current difficulties, as reflected in that photo…
Why are the two CHP members in the photo, Özgür Özel and Ekrem İmamoğlu, who are known to be potential presidential candidates, but the third potential candidate, Mansur Yavaş, absent?
The CHP-affiliated media is divided in its support for these three potential candidates.
If this division also exists within CHP ranks, the candidacy process could turn into a Shakespearean tragedy.
Can a candidate with a CHP badge win the “50+1” vote in the presidential election?
For a moment, let’s assume that the candidacy issue is resolved through consensus on a single name, that the candidate adopts rhetoric that makes them appealing to the conservative segment, erasing CHP’s past mistakes from their memory, and that the media aligns with this stance.
Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, who had made his candidacy indisputable within CHP, had managed to appear sympathetic to the segments he wanted to reach with his efforts toward “reconciliation” and the faces he brought together on the “Table of Six,” and his media had adapted to this situation; but he still lost…
AK Party, MHP, and Tayyip Erdoğan will once again look for new tactics to ensure success…
Someone who will take on the mission of Meral Akşener —perhaps a foul-mouthed party member— could emerge from their ranks again…
The “Table of Six” and the support of conservative parties’ leaders no longer exist… [By the way, why is Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, one of the former chairmen, absent from that photo?]
If Erdoğan, who has led his party to victory in 18 out of 19 past elections, has new tricks up his sleeve, I wouldn’t be surprised.
Premature excitement is misplaced.
ΩΩΩΩ
[The translation of the article which came out in today’s daily KARAR is by ChatGPT with some minor modifications.]
