From the perspective I’m viewing, the early conclusion I see is this: The AK Party and the CHP are gradually swapping places…
When it was first founded, very few people predicted that the AK Party could come to power alone in its first election.
The party entered the elections with a ‘politically banned’ leader, who was once declared by the most influential newspaper of the time with the headline “He can’t even become a village headman.”
Apart from one TV channel and a few newspapers, the vast majority of the media was against it.
It was whispered that even if they won the election, the military would not hand over power.
Only a small number of commentators saw the AK Party as a possible governing party.
On the other hand…
According to ANAR’s public opinion polls, the people wanted change and believed that it was necessary to break free from the influence of the February 28 process, which aimed to pit brother against brother.
The AK Party attracted more attention by emerging with a broad team reminiscent of Turgut Özal, and by supplementing its core team, which was previously seen as defending only the rights of a certain segment, with faces that represented the rights of the entire society without any discrimination..
In addition to headscarf-wearing women, women from the business world, academia, and bureaucracy, who dressed in modern attire, also took part in and supported the party.
In the end, the AK Party succeeded in coming to power; the government formed under Abdullah Gül’s leadership included the liberal principles from its founding declaration and campaign manifesto in its program.
As the new political cadre’s determination to fulfill its promises began to be seen in its rhetoric and actions, the AK Party started to attract attention from intellectuals who were initially hesitant.
In its first 11 years, not only did the AK Party increase its vote share in every election, but those who initially seemed to be determined to oppose it began to reduce the intensity of their opposition as they witnessed its actions.
Then something changed.
The party, which had received 58% support from the public in the September 12, 2010 referendum, unnecessarily opened the doors of the state wide to a supporter group that it saw as having played an important role in this success.
We know what happened next: December 17-25 (2013), July 15 (2016), the referendum (2017) that led to the transition to the ‘presidential government system’ with MHP support, and the partnership with MHP (2018)…
Today, we see a different AK Party: While Dilruba, with her modern appearance, is sent to prison due to harsh criticisms, three-term AK Party MP Hüda Kaya, who was once tried with her daughters under the threat of the death penalty during the February 28 process, shares the same fate as Dilruba (both were recently released).
History will record this contradiction…
As for the main opposition party, the CHP…
While it has long appeared as a party satisfied with its position and not aiming to come to power, recently, in parallel with the changes in the AK Party, the CHP has also entered into an effort to redefine itself.
During the ‘February 28 process,’ Deniz Baykal considered the military intervention as a ‘civil society initiative’ and during the AK Party era brought the 367 requirement to the Constitutional Court. He had started to pin the six-arrow badge on the chests of headscarf-wearing women on the podium, but the real transformation began with Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu’s leadership of the party (2010).
Kılıçdaroğlu’s leadership of the CHP coincided with the years when the AK Party began to forget its founding principles. By the time the years of amnesia – 2017 and beyond – set in, Kılıçdaroğlu also opened the party’s doors to ‘the others.’
Kılıçdaroğlu tried to encapsulate what he was doing with the term ‘reconciliation.’ He even sat at the same table with the leaders of parties known as ‘right-wing’ or ‘conservative’ before the 2023 election.
Özgür Özel, on the other hand, is trying to give a more distinct meaning to Kılıçdaroğlu’s efforts. Özel aims to transform the CHP into a party that could attract voters who would have never considered voting for it before.
The photograph was symbolic:
Özgür Özel was pictured with the modern-looking Dilruba, recently released from prison, on one side, and Dilara, a headscarf-wearing woman who was denied the opportunity to serve at a dental conference, on the other…
It may still be too early to claim that the AK Party is beginning to resemble the old CHP, but I believe we can say that the CHP is starting to resemble the AK Party of 2002 today.
Both parties, having swapped positions, are at a crossroads:
Will the AK Party, which is reluctant to abandon its recent image, be able to retain its fleeing voters and bring back those who have already left?
Will the CHP, trying to attract new voters, be able to achieve this without losing its traditional voters?
We shall see.
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[The translation of the article is by ChatGPT with some minor modifications.]
